May 26, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Dallas Mavericks center Dereck Lively II (2) reacts after an injury in the second quarter against the Minnesota Timberwolves during game three of the western conference finals for the 2024 NBA playoffs at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
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If Dallas closes out Minnesota tonight, we’re going to have a week until the Finals. This newsletter is about to get real review-y with movies.
HallaLuka
Is Luka Dončić taking the crown now?
Do you hear that? The storm clouds of debate are forming off in the distance, just waiting to strike basketball conversations with a torrential downpour of hyperbolic disagreement.
With Nikola Jokić eliminated by Minnesota, Giannis Antetokounmpo not making an appearance in the playoffs and Joel Embiid too injured to be consistent, there is an opening for the title of “best basketball player in the world.” It’s a rite of passage for someone we’ve been waiting to see reach the NBA Finals.
Luka Dončić might just be that guy. Is it an overreaction to just dismiss Jokić (a three-time MVP in the last four years, plus reigning champion and Finals MVP) because he lost in the second round? Probably.
But does Dončić also have a case for challenging the honor’s throne? He’s very much creating one. And that’s where we stand now, with the Dallas Mavericks on the brink of the third NBA Finals berth in team history.
The 25-year-old has the stats, as we know. While Mavs fans have been adamant he was the real MVP this season (he wasn’t, but he was still awesome), his numbers continue to look like utter nonsense.
He averaged 33.9 points (first Maverick to win the scoring title), a career-high 9.8 assists and 9.2 rebounds with a career-best 61.7 percent true shooting percentage.
For the playoffs, Dončić is at 28.3 points, 9.1 assists and 9.6 rebounds with a dip in his true shooting mark (55.6), but he also has a laundry list of injuries he’s managing.
And, if Dončić manages to beat the vaunted Boston Celtics in the NBA Finals, then we’re ripe for the discussion of whether he’s the best player in the world..
Joining that club of champions immediately jumps you up a couple. notches, and we’ve seen Dončić show such potential ever since he joined the NBA in 2018.
Boston’s Jayson Tatum will have something to say about it. Jokić and Giannis and company will be back next season to prove the chatter wrong. But this discourse is about to get very loud if Dončić can lead his team to five more wins in the next four weeks.
Since we’re here, let’s direct the question to you, the reader to weigh in on who you believe is the best player in the world. We’ll update late tomorrow with your results.
Mavericks rookie Dereck Lively II missed Game 4 of the Western Conference finals after taking a knee to the head in Game 3. The good news for Dallas, however, is that, per league sources, Lively is not in concussion protocol (he watched Tuesday’s game from the bench, which likely wouldn’t have happened if he were in the protocol).
I’m told Lively’s sprained neck is a day-to-day injury, and there’s at least a chance he returns for Game 5, depending on how his evaluation goes throughout the day. As of this morning, the Mavs, who will advance to the NBA Finals with a win tonight, were listing him as questionable.
The Impossible Reverse Sweep
Just how unlikely is it for Minnesota to do this?
The easy answer to this question is, “Teams are 0-155 all-time winning a series once they’re down 3-0 in a seven-game series. Next question!”
We’ve never seen a team pull off the reverse sweep – losing the first three games before winning the next four. Ninety-five of those situations have ended in sweeps, so the Wolves managed to avoid that embarrassment. Forty-six teams have forced a Game 5, which now includes Minnesota.
We’ve seen 11 teams force a Game 6, which Minnesota seeks tonight. And only four teams have managed to force a Game 7. Game 5 tips off in Minneapolis at 8:30 p.m. ET on TNT.
Of the 11 teams who forced a Game 6 after trailing 3-0, eight have been since the year 2000. Maybe that’s a little more encouraging for the Wolves? Yes, 90 percent of teams in this situation don’t see a Game 6, but those that have forced that extra game have done so since we were relieved to know Y2K wouldn’t shatter society. To be the 12th team to do this, the Wolves need to simply win a home game. Simple enough, right?
